Coffee exports are expected to exceed $8 billion.

Despite market fluctuations, Vietnam’s coffee industry is projected to maintain export revenue above $8 billion. However, the $10 billion target is considered challenging.

Falling prices drag down export value

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in March 2026, coffee exports are estimated to reach 210,000 tons, equivalent to 956.2 million USD. For the first quarter of 2026, cumulative coffee exports reached 577,300 tons with a value of 2.71 billion USD, an increase of 12.6% in volume but a decrease of 6.4% in value compared to the same period in 2025.

The main reason is the sharp decline in average export prices, falling to only about US$4,696.8/ton, 16.9% lower than the same period last year. This clearly reflects the downward trend in the global coffee market as supply improved, especially from Brazil, while demand did not increase proportionally.

Regarding markets, Germany, Italy, and Spain continue to be the three largest consumers of Vietnamese coffee, with market shares of 16.4%, 8.6%, and 7.6% respectively. Exports to Germany and Spain maintained growth, while those to Italy declined. Notably, China emerged as the fastest-growing market, doubling compared to the same period last year, while the Philippines experienced a significant drop.

In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands decreased by VND 2,500-2,800/kg in March. In early April, prices fluctuated around 88,700 – 89,300 VND/kg, indicating that the downward trend remained dominant. Trading was sluggish as farmers tended to hold onto their stock, waiting for prices to rise, while businesses had to be flexible with their supply sources, even importing from Brazil and Indonesia to ensure contract fulfillment.

On the world market, coffee prices also fluctuated downwards. Robusta prices on the London exchange fell sharply across many maturities, while Arabica prices in New York also weakened. Although geopolitical factors such as transportation disruptions may increase logistics costs, they were not enough to reverse the price trend amidst global oversupply.

Amidst declining coffee export prices, the challenge of increasing added value for the coffee industry has become more urgent than ever. Many experts believe that deep processing is no longer an option but a necessary direction.

At the workshop “Solutions to Promote Deep Processing to Increase the Value of Vietnamese Coffee,” Mr. Nguyen Quang Binh, a coffee market expert, predicted that coffee prices could continue to fall by 20-30% in 2026. This makes increasing the rate of deep processing a crucial solution to retain a higher added value.

According to Mr. Binh, if businesses can participate in the supply chains of large corporations, they can sell large quantities at prices 300-400 USD/ton higher than the market price. However, the number of Vietnamese businesses meeting these standards is still very limited. Meanwhile, the specialty coffee segment, which can yield higher values ​​of $1,000-$2,000 per ton, has not developed proportionally.

Improving Quality and Meeting “Green” Standards

In the context of increasingly stringent markets, especially in large markets like the EU, requirements for traceability, sustainable development, and environmental standards are becoming major obstacles.

Mr. Tran Van Cong, Vietnam’s Agricultural Counselor to the EU, stated that the EU is currently the world’s largest coffee consumption and processing center, with import turnover of approximately US$26.33 billion annually. Vietnam is the second largest supplier, but is facing increasing pressure from “green” standards and transparency requirements.

In reality, the Vietnamese coffee brand in high-end markets remains weak, lacking clear recognition of origin and quality. This is one of the reasons why added value has not yet reached its full potential.

Regarding this issue, in an interview with the Vietnam Industry and Trade Newspaper, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, stated that despite frequent mentions of building corporate and product brands, Vietnam has yet to establish a national brand for Robusta coffee, the world’s largest export commodity.

According to Mr. Hiep, the main reason is the lack of focused resources. Vietnam has many key industries, so it hasn’t given sufficient priority to coffee, while other countries consistently develop and protect their flagship brands. Therefore, to build a Vietnamese Robusta brand, proactive investment and protection are needed from an early stage, rather than waiting until the market is already dominated.

Mr. Hiep emphasized that coffee is a strategic commodity with high liquidity and stable global demand. Coffee prices depend on many factors such as supply, trade policies, geopolitical fluctuations, etc. However, compared to the past, the volatility of prices has been somewhat reduced thanks to Vietnam’s relatively complete production-export ecosystem. After more than 40 years of development, the coffee industry has shifted from small-scale to large-scale production, making a significant contribution to economic growth and farmers’ income.

Nevertheless, the coffee market remains one of the most sensitive markets in the world, with a fragile balance between supply and demand. The industry is facing many challenges such as climate change, natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, and global financial volatility. Even a single unusual event in major producing countries can cause significant fluctuations in coffee prices.

Furthermore, global consumer trends are changing rapidly, especially in major markets such as China, India, Russia, and the Middle East. The area of ​​high-quality coffee cultivation is shrinking, impacting supply. International regulations such as the EU’s EUDR also impose stricter requirements on traceability and sustainable development, creating both pressure and opportunities to improve product quality.

Assessing the outlook for the 2025-2026 crop year, Mr. Hiep believes that despite increased production, prices will remain relatively stable, providing a basis for positive export expectations. However, the market still faces potential volatility as trade policies between major economies such as the US, China, and the Americas remain unclear.

In the long term, Vietnam’s coffee export value in the next crop year is projected to exceed US$8 billion. However, the $10 billion target is a major challenge in the current context, especially when policy changes from major markets could cause the industry to lose up to 20% of its export value.

In the first quarter of 2026, coffee exports increased by 12.6% in volume but decreased by 6.4% in value due to a sharp drop in average prices. Amidst volatile global markets and increasing pressure from oversupply, the Vietnamese coffee industry faces the urgent need to accelerate deep processing, improve quality, and perfect the value chain to maintain its position.

By Hanh Nguyen

Source: congthuong.vn